Markets will be a boring boring place for the next few weeks. They may not go up or down,… you can loose money on either side. Do nothing.
— Rajat Sharma (@SanaSecurities) September 21, 2016
Nifty has still not fallen to my level of comfort. It may just reach their this coming week, but again, it may take longer. Who can tell!
— Rajat Sharma (@SanaSecurities) November 11, 2016
Those already invested should try to rebalance their portfolios and so I have done in many client folios.
Common question: with NIFTY having fallen ~ 10% from its highs made earlier this year, is it time to start buying stocks? Here’s how valuations will look at different levels on the Nifty with current EPS base.
At what NIFTY level will you start investing?
To calculate current EPS, I will be taking current Nifty P/E (15 November, 2016) which is 21.00.
P/E = Price (Nifty level)
Earnings per Share (EPS)
Current EPS = 379
 Nifty at 7,000 levels
P/E = 7,000/379
 Nifty at 7,500 levels
P/E = 7,500/379
 Nifty at 8,000 levels
P/E = 8,000/379
 Nifty at 8,500 levels
P/E = 8,500/379
 Nifty at 9,000 levels
P/E = 9,000/379
CURRENT NIFTY PE AS OF 15 NOVEMBER 2016 = 21.37
Typically, in a bull market (which I believe we certainly are in right now); valuations tend to run ahead of the earnings. It would be difficult to buy these markets at valuations of sub 19 level anytime soon. Further, some of the buying and selling that happened over the past 2-3 days has no explanation.
Some stocks that are falling make no sense. Same is true for some stocks that are rising, particularly in the banking space.#speculation
— Rajat Sharma (@SanaSecurities) November 15, 2016
There sure is some amount of panic and herd selling. This could go on for some time as investors sell their liquid investments to arrange cash in the short term. Certainly with this new reality (of demonetization) one thing every investor should do is to pay some attention to his portfolio and rebalance it in light of the new realities.
As for buying stocks, sure . . . . . the tide could turn anytime from these levels.
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